As draft day nears it is always enlightening to watch all of the hand wringing over what to do with the number 1 pick. It looks easy from the outside-simply pick the best available, can't miss College Football player available. How could he miss? Make the right choice and you are set for years. Make the wrong choice and be a perennial early round drafting team. Take a look at the top 3 picks in each draft since 2000 and see for yourself how they have panned out......it's not as easy as it seems.

2000-B-
1) Courtney Brown-156 tackles in 7 year career, 0 in 2006. Currently unsigned free agent.
2) Lavar Arrington-3 pro bowl appearances-2001-2003-however seen as over-rated and recently released by Giants
3) Chris Samuels-a solid left tackle-3 pro bowl appearances-2002, 2006, 2007

2001-F
1) Michael Vick-71 TDs and 52 INTs in up but mostly down career. He is Ryan Leaf off the field but gets a break because he is a good looking charismatic kid. If he was fat and nasty looking like Leaf he'd have been gone 4 years ago.
2) Leonard Davis-9 tackles in 6 seasons........
3) Gerard Warren-142 tackles in 6 seasons-

2002-C (Julius Pepper ruined the curve)
1) David Carr-This is the guy that caused the Texans to pass on Vince Young last year-then they released him this year.....59 TDs and 65 INTs. Recently signed as a backup to Jake Delhomme in Carolina.
2) Julius Peppers-2002 Defensive Rookie of the Year, 3 Pro Bowl Appearances-2005-2007. An absolute animal. A game changer. They got this one right......
3) Joey Harrington-Currently on his 3rd team after signing with the Falcons to back up Michael Vick. 72 TDs and 77 INTs in very underwhelming career.

2003-B
1) Carson Palmer-2005 FedEx Air Player of the Year, 2 Pro Bowls, 2006 and 2007. Bengals' single season passing TD record holder-32 and Bengals' single season passing yards leader-4035. They got this one right.
2) Charles Rogers-4 career touchdown passes....another Matt Millen 1st round wideout......
3) Andre Johnson-2 Pro Bowl appearances-2005 and 2007, 2 1000 yard receiving seasons, 17 TD passes.

2004-B-
1) Eli Manning-54 TDs, 44 INTs in 3 year career. Made nominal improvement from 2nd to 3rd year. Average QB.
2) Robert Gallery-Widely considered a bust. Has certainly not had the benefit of quality coaching while playing for Oakland.
3) Larry Fitzgerald-1 Pro Bowl-2006, 1409 yards receiving in 2005, 24 career TDs. They got this one right.

2005-B-
1) Alex Smith-went from 1 TD and 11 INTs in rookie year to 16/16 last year. Not spectacular-but showed significant improvement. 49ers look to be on the rebound.
2) Ronnie Brown-1000 yard rusher in 2nd season. 10 TDs in 2 year career. Solid NFL running back.
3) Braylon Edwards-showed good improvement from Rookie season to last year. Had 884 yards receiving and 6 TDs last year. Solid NFL wideout

2006-C (Mario pulls the average down here)
1) Mario Williams-no matter how Williams' pro career plays out-he'll always be the guy who cost Charlie Casserly his job for passing over Vince Young and Reggie Bush-perhaps the biggest draft day bed wetting in NFL history. He had a fair season for a rookie D Lineman-35 tackles, 4.5 sacks and 3 passes defensed, although he was often outshone by fellow rookie DeMeco Ryans-who won the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award after posting 155 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 int and 1 fumble recovery, despite being picked 32 spots behind Williams.
2) Reggie Bush-NFL Rookie of the Month-December 2006, 565 yards rushing, 742 yards receiving, and 8 TDs while splitting time with Duece McAllistar in New Orleans.
3) Vince Young-put up just OK numbers from a stats perspective but he won games. He took the Titans to an 8-5 record in the 13 games he started-after they started off 0-3. He put up 12 TDs and 13 INTs and added 552 yards and 7 rushing TDs.

Hey NFL teams-try to pick a couple of guys who can Stay in the Game!